Would Minethatbird have won today if Mike Smith was up?

My theory is this; if Rachel Alexandria was in the field, Smith would have rode a different race that Borel. It appeared to me that Borel wasn't urging or whipping MTB in the stretch. My expectation was that MTB was going to win in a Secretariat style fashion, but 30 years of watching races make me know better. Glad I didn't waste my money today!